Method: these are model estimates, not guaranteed true probabilities. EST = built from the line, a positional average and game script only. PLAYER = also uses the player's recent average (last 5 games). DATA = also uses how the opposing defense has performed against that position. For NFL props both come automatically from free nflverse data, refreshed daily; college props stay EST unless you add columns 8-9. Each prop runs 100,000 simulated games. Hit % is the share of simulations on the pick's side of the line. Edge = hit % minus 52.4%, the break-even rate at -110. Every prop's baseline is adjusted for matchup: game script from the Sportsbook tab (the implied team score from the spread and total, which already reflects the opposing defense) plus any defense ratings you add. Props need matching team codes in the games list to get this. Pairs keep each player's own line: a QB's passing prop is matched with a teammate's receiving prop, and the two legs are simulated together (correlation 0.5). Both-hit % is the chance both legs land; pair edge = both-hit % minus 27.4%, the break-even for two -110 legs. Research only, not betting advice. 21+ where required; gamble responsibly.